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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ eagles week 2, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
1-0
20
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
77°F
15 mph
10
PHIEagles
0-1
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
77°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
3
1
7
14
Eagles
0
0
0
10
10

Spread

DAL logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
53

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
359
226
Total Plays
70
55
Yards / Play
5.1
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.38
Passing Yards
250
219
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.22
Rushing Yards
109
7
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
3.3
0.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.71
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
33%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.44
-17.20
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-8.09
-1.18
Penalties
18
8
Penalty Yards
142
60
Penalty EPA
-17.77
-7.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model63.3%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+16.9
Market Regression
+1.1
Final Difference
94.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
11/09
5.9
85
11/23
5.9
85
11/27
-8.7
7
12/04
4.0
77
12/14
3.3
73
12/21
9.9
96
12/28
2.3
67
01/04
-1.8
37
01/11
0.4
52
09/13
8.5
95
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Value
Ptile
12/23
-3.1
29
12/30
2.3
64
09/08
6.4
88
09/15
6.7
89
09/22
-4.7
20
09/26
-9.5
4
10/06
1.0
57
10/13
4.1
78
10/20
0.4
53
09/14
2.5
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
32

EPA

EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
5
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22

EPA

EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
16
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
30
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
22
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
14
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/27
-23
L
L
U
12/04
13
W
W
O
12/14
11
W
W
O
12/21
35
W
W
U
12/28
27
W
W
O
01/04
4
W
L
U
01/11
-5
L
W
U
09/13
1
W
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
10
W
W
O
11/10
24
W
W
O
11/16
-33
L
L
O
11/23
19
W
W
O
11/27
23
W
W
U
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
L
P
12/28
8
W
W
O
09/14
-2
L
L
U