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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ eagles week 17, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
8-7
6
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
19°F
17 mph
0
PHIEagles
13-2
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
19°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
0
0
6
6
Eagles
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

DAL logo
-4

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
301
219
Total Plays
63
55
Yards / Play
4.8
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.41
Passing Yards
172
149
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.57
Rushing Yards
129
70
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
16
12
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
--
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.78
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-24
Sack EPA
-1.35
-6.31
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
64
49
Penalty EPA
-6.25
-5.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.8%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,679
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+61.1
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-65.3
Home QB Adjustment
-79.6
Away QB Adjustment
-14.3
Market Regression
-113.2
Final Difference
-26.9
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
Value
Ptile
10/22
8.1
94
10/29
-3.3
29
11/05
7.0
90
11/12
-4.9
20
11/19
-11.6
1
11/23
-4.1
24
11/30
-1.0
45
12/10
7.7
93
12/17
-2.3
37
12/24
-7.4
10
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-79.6
Value
Ptile
10/11
-14.0
0
10/25
-3.9
22
11/01
-0.7
46
11/08
-3.7
24
11/15
-6.8
8
11/29
-5.2
14
12/06
-7.3
6
11/06
-3.2
25
12/17
4.4
82
12/25
-6.6
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
1

EPA

EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
1
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
22
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
13
2
Turnover EPA / Game
19
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
3
4th Down Efficiency
11
2
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
8

EPA

EPA / Play
4
16
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
11
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
2
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
30
W
W
O
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
11
W
W
U
11/12
-20
L
L
U
11/19
-28
L
L
U
11/23
-22
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/10
20
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
P
U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
5
W
W
O
10/23
10
W
W
O
10/29
23
W
W
U
11/05
28
W
W
O
11/19
28
W
W
U
11/26
28
W
W
U
12/03
-14
L
L
U
12/10
8
W
W
O
12/17
5
W
L
O
12/25
9
W
L
U