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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ giants week 1, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
-
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
5 mph
17
NYGGiants
-
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
77°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
7
10
7
24
Giants
0
3
7
7
17

Spread

DAL logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
433
269
Total Plays
57
54
Yards / Play
7.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.04
Passing Yards
290
187
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.10
Rushing Yards
143
82
Rush Attempts
26
19
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.62
-4.71
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-26
Sack EPA
-3.57
-4.14
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
86
33
Penalty EPA
-16.01
-3.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Value
Ptile
10/30
-4.9
19
11/06
5.5
84
11/13
9.8
96
11/20
2.5
69
11/24
-0.4
49
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
6.4
87
12/17
7.2
91
12/24
-5.3
17
01/01
0.0
52
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
11/28
7.9
93
12/04
5.3
82
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-8.0
6
12/24
-4.9
19
01/01
8.3
94
01/08
8.2
94
01/15
5.2
82
01/22
-1.1
44
02/05
3.6
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Cowboys logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
8
31
Passing Yards / Game
1
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24

EPA

EPA / Play
13
20
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
24
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
32
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
19
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
20
4
Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Giants logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
16
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20

EPA

EPA / Play
3
25
EPA / Pass
12
28
EPA / Rush
7
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
15
Interceptions / Game
14
31
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
13
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
-27
L
L
U
11/06
10
W
L
U
11/13
37
W
W
O
11/20
3
W
L
O
11/24
1
W
L
U
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/24
-13
L
L
U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-25
L
L
O
12/04
-3
L
W
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/18
-13
L
L
U
12/24
15
W
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
01/08
22
W
W
U
01/15
17
W
W
O
01/22
3
W
W
U
02/05
4
W
W
U