DALCowboys
3-8
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
38°F
9 mph
34
BALRavens
6-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
38°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
0
7
17
Ravens
7
10
7
10
34
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
401
Total Plays
77
54
Yards / Play
5.0
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.24
Passing Yards
277
--
Comp/Att
31/48(65%)
12/17(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.27
Rushing Yards
111
294
Rush Attempts
28
37
Yards / Rush
4.0
7.9
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.52
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
19
Passing 1st downs
20
2
Rushing 1st downs
8
16
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.18
-4.27
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.25
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
58
23
Penalty EPA
-3.63
-3.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model80.4%
Spread Pick
Ravens-9.0
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+277
Home nfelo
1,646
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+91.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-92.8
Market Regression
+9.2
Final Difference
245.6
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-92.8
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
1
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6
EPA
EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
25
7
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
15
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
10
RZ Efficiency
29
15
Ravens Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
19
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31
EPA
EPA / Play
7
21
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
1
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
17
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U