DALCowboys
2-2
16
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
019
HOUTexans
1-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
6
0
7
3
0
16
Texans
0
10
3
3
3
19
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
462
Total Plays
60
76
Yards / Play
4.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.13
Passing Yards
194
374
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
33/44(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.00
Rushing Yards
98
88
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.34
-7.86
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-1
Sack EPA
-2.99
-3.69
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
72
25
Penalty EPA
-8.48
-1.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+37.5
Home QB Adjustment
+25.5
Away QB Adjustment
-12.0
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.0
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4
EPA
EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
7
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
26
31
Texans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
21
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
16
RZ Efficiency
28
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Texans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U