MIADolphins
1-0
10
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
4 mph
29
BUFBills
1-0
TBD
New Era Field
58°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
10
0
10
Bills
6
3
14
6
29
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
317
Total Plays
74
58
Yards / Play
3.9
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.03
Passing Yards
210
--
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.29
Rushing Yards
80
115
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
50%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.34
+4.65
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-5.40
--
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
+2.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.2
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
26.6
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
24
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23
EPA
EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
28
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
10
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U