MIADolphins
0-2
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
12 mph
13
JAXJaguars
1-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
81°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
14
7
7
3
31
Jaguars
0
7
0
6
13
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
318
Total Plays
57
63
Yards / Play
5.2
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.18
Passing Yards
156
246
Comp/Att
18/20(90%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.23
Rushing Yards
138
72
Rush Attempts
36
17
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
54%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.14
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-4
-29
Sack EPA
-1.15
-12.56
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
51
63
Penalty EPA
-4.83
-12.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,370
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
17
30
EPA / Pass
17
30
EPA / Rush
25
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
16
24
Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
27
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
17
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
14
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U