MIADolphins
1-0
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
4 mph
12
NYJJets
1-0
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
13
0
0
20
Jets
0
0
6
6
12
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
362
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
4.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.24
Passing Yards
122
320
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.26
Rushing Yards
135
42
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
46%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.04
-16.81
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-46
-14
Sack EPA
-12.27
-3.86
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-6.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.7
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
+49.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
29
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
27
9
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
29
29
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
27
25
EPA / Rush
31
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
30
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U