MIADolphins
5-4
12
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
6 mph
31
GBPackers
3-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
6
3
0
12
Packers
7
7
14
3
31
Spread
-12.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
377
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
4.5
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
163
182
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.40
+0.05
Rushing Yards
131
195
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
5.7
7.8
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.52
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-50
-17
Sack EPA
-12.10
-6.01
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
10
45
Penalty EPA
-1.61
-4.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+238
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+68.2
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+62.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
-50.5
Market Regression
+51.3
Final Difference
286.7
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-50.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
31
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
27
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
27
17
Packers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
14
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U