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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ packers week 10, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
5-4
12
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
6 mph
31
GBPackers
3-4
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
6
3
0
12
Packers
7
7
14
3
31

Spread

GB logo
-12.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
294
377
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
4.5
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
163
182
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.40
+0.05
Rushing Yards
131
195
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
5.7
7.8
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.52
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-50
-17
Sack EPA
-12.10
-6.01
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
10
45
Penalty EPA
-1.61
-4.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+69.0
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+62.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
-50.5
Market Regression
+51.2
Final Difference
286.6
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-50.5
Value
Ptile
01/07
1.6
60
01/14
-7.0
8
11/05
-7.9
8
11/12
-2.5
35
11/19
-2.0
39
12/24
-5.4
18
10/14
6.6
87
10/21
0.5
50
10/25
-4.6
20
11/04
-7.0
10
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
10/15
-5.5
17
12/17
-0.4
49
09/09
6.1
85
09/16
1.9
61
09/23
1.6
58
09/30
-0.3
44
10/07
6.9
89
10/15
5.4
82
10/28
0.4
49
11/04
1.3
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Packers Defense
Dolphins logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
31
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23

EPA

EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
27
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
27
17
Packers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Packers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31

EPA

EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
2
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
14
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-6
L
L
U
09/09
7
W
W
O
09/16
8
W
W
U
09/23
8
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/07
-10
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/21
-11
L
L
O
10/25
-19
L
L
O
11/04
7
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-24
L
L
O
09/09
1
W
L
O
09/16
0
T
W
O
09/23
-14
L
L
O
09/30
22
W
W
U
10/07
-8
L
L
O
10/15
3
W
L
O
10/28
-2
L
W
U
11/04
-14
L
L
U