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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ commanders week 4, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
1-2
20
TBD
FedExField
58°F
13 mph
23
WASCommanders
1-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
58°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
13
7
20
Commanders
6
7
3
7
23

Spread

WAS logo
+3

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
320
417
Total Plays
51
79
Yards / Play
6.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.00
Passing Yards
233
290
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.16
Rushing Yards
87
127
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
6
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
33%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-5.21
-4.27
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-37
--
Sack EPA
-4.74
-1.13
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
72
110
Penalty EPA
-9.09
-13.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-135
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.5
Market Regression
-5.3
Final Difference
-93.6
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
6.4
88
09/15
6.7
89
09/22
-4.7
20
09/26
-9.5
4
10/06
1.0
57
10/13
4.1
78
10/20
0.4
53
09/14
2.5
68
09/20
-2.9
29
09/27
-4.1
20
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
12/22
-2.6
35
12/29
-12.9
1
09/21
8.4
92
09/25
-6.3
14
10/06
3.6
75
10/12
-1.1
42
10/19
-5.2
19
09/13
-3.6
25
09/20
2.1
66
09/24
-1.2
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26

EPA

EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
16
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
30
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
15
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
32

EPA

EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
28
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
9
10
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
11
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-33
L
L
O
11/23
19
W
W
O
11/27
23
W
W
U
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
L
P
12/28
8
W
W
O
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
7
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-20
L
L
U
11/23
-4
L
W
U
11/30
-22
L
L
O
12/07
-24
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
P
12/28
-27
L
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/20
14
W
W
U
09/24
-11
L
L
O