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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ commanders week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
9-5
24
TBD
FedExField
37°F
0
27
WASCommanders
3-11
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
37°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
7
0
10
24
Commanders
10
0
14
3
27

Spread

WAS logo
+7

Total

PUSH
51
P

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
495
305
Total Plays
84
54
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.09
Passing Yards
361
205
Comp/Att
37/50(74%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.33
Rushing Yards
134
100
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
30
21
Passing 1st downs
22
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
56%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.71
-7.40
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-13
-15
Sack EPA
-6.89
-3.36
Penalties
13
3
Penalty Yards
102
15
Penalty EPA
-14.78
-2.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-123
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+75.9
Home QB Adjustment
-18.1
Away QB Adjustment
-94.1
Market Regression
+5.7
Final Difference
-155.0
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-94.1
Value
Ptile
12/02
-11.8
1
12/09
-4.0
24
12/17
-13.3
1
12/30
-5.7
14
11/10
2.6
69
11/16
-1.3
41
11/23
0.2
51
11/27
4.0
77
12/07
-5.0
20
12/14
-8.5
7
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-18.1
Value
Ptile
11/07
4.1
78
11/17
-2.2
37
11/25
-8.6
5
12/01
3.8
76
12/08
-7.5
10
09/07
1.0
57
09/14
-4.6
22
11/02
-3.5
28
11/16
-6.0
15
11/23
-7.4
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
12

EPA

EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
15
32
EPA / Rush
21
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
32
28
Fumbles / Game
31
16
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
13
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
15

EPA

EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
25
17
EPA / Rush
18
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
32
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
27
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
6
W
W
O
10/12
27
W
W
U
10/26
-4
L
L
U
11/02
10
W
W
O
11/10
24
W
W
O
11/16
-33
L
L
O
11/23
19
W
W
O
11/27
23
W
W
U
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-10
L
L
U
10/12
-10
L
L
O
10/19
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-20
L
L
U
11/23
-4
L
W
U
11/30
-22
L
L
O
12/07
-24
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
U