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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ giants week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
2-3
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
3 mph
13
NYGGiants
1-4
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
14
10
7
3
34
Giants
3
3
7
0
13

Spread

PHI logo
-2

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
379
401
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.6
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.21
Passing Yards
271
254
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.53
-0.36
Rushing Yards
108
147
Rush Attempts
31
17
Yards / Rush
3.5
8.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
56%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.95
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-27
Sack EPA
-1.63
-6.25
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
25
61
Penalty EPA
-4.64
-4.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+51.7
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-42.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+47.4
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+47.4
Value
Ptile
10/23
7.0
90
10/29
-3.8
26
11/05
4.7
83
11/19
-0.0
52
11/26
5.9
87
12/03
2.8
73
12/10
5.6
86
09/23
-3.5
25
09/30
3.5
72
10/07
4.2
75
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
11/23
-11.5
1
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
9.1
96
12/24
-4.4
22
12/31
-8.4
6
09/09
-3.3
26
09/16
-0.6
42
09/23
3.5
72
09/30
1.1
54
10/07
0.6
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
22
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
16
23
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6

EPA

EPA / Play
13
22
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
11
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
22
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
29
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
9
W
L
U
12/31
-6
L
L
U
01/13
5
W
W
U
01/21
31
W
W
O
02/04
8
W
W
O
09/06
6
W
W
U
09/16
-6
L
L
O
09/23
4
W
L
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-7
L
W
U
12/10
-20
L
L
U
12/17
-5
L
W
O
12/24
-23
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/16
-7
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/30
-15
L
L
U
10/07
-2
L
W
O