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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ panthers week 7, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-3
16
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
71°F
0
27
CARPanthers
5-0
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
71°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
6
10
0
16
Panthers
7
7
7
6
27

Spread

CAR logo
-3

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
349
394
Total Plays
81
58
Yards / Play
4.3
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.02
Passing Yards
172
190
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.19
Rushing Yards
177
204
Rush Attempts
30
33
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
39%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
9
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.99
-11.32
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-33
-7
Sack EPA
-6.61
-1.75
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
46
43
Penalty EPA
-3.74
-5.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-3
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
32.9
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
09/26
-9.5
4
10/06
1.0
57
10/13
4.1
78
10/20
0.4
53
09/14
2.5
68
09/20
-2.9
29
09/27
-4.1
20
10/04
-0.5
47
10/11
3.7
77
10/19
-4.4
18
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
12/07
11.6
99
12/21
4.2
78
12/28
2.1
66
01/03
-0.0
49
01/10
1.6
62
09/13
-3.6
24
09/20
3.2
74
09/27
8.0
93
10/04
-1.0
44
10/18
-1.5
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Panthers Defense
Eagles logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4

EPA

EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
16
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
30
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Panthers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Panthers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
11
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32

EPA

EPA / Play
4
17
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
3
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
26
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
9
27
RZ Efficiency
1
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-10
L
L
U
12/14
-11
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
L
P
12/28
8
W
W
O
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
7
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
L
U
10/11
22
W
W
O
10/19
20
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
2
W
L
U
12/21
4
W
L
U
12/28
31
W
W
U
01/03
11
W
W
O
01/10
-14
L
L
O
09/13
11
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
P
09/27
5
W
L
O
10/04
14
W
W
O
10/18
4
W
W
O