PHIEagles
4-7
35
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
5 mph
28
NEPatriots
10-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
8
2
7
17
Patriots
0
14
0
14
28
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
427
Total Plays
58
86
Yards / Play
4.3
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.18
Passing Yards
120
324
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
30/57(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.08
Rushing Yards
128
103
Rush Attempts
33
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
8
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.40
-15.38
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
-0.68
-5.35
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
97
30
Penalty EPA
-8.63
-3.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+244
Home nfelo
1,657
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+81.8
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
8
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
21
10
EPA / Pass
22
12
EPA / Rush
16
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
26
24
Fumbles / Game
30
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
22
14
Patriots Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
32
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
4
16
EPA / Rush
6
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
4
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
5-3-2
ATS
6-4
O/U