PHIEagles
4-5
7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
048
NOSaints
8-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
7
0
0
7
Saints
10
14
14
10
48
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
196
546
Total Plays
48
69
Yards / Play
4.1
7.9
EPA / Play
-0.40
+0.42
Passing Yards
138
--
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.59
+0.91
Rushing Yards
58
173
Rush Attempts
12
37
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
28
Passing 1st downs
9
21
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
30%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.49
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-4.05
--
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
49
69
Penalty EPA
-6.42
-2.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.0%
Spread Pick
Saints-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,688
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+88.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+30.9
Away QB Adjustment
+50.7
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
190.4
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+50.7
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+30.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
22
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
21
15
Fumbles / Game
24
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
17
23
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
13
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U