PHIEagles
3-1
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
48°F
4 mph
16
PITSteelers
1-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
48°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
0
7
7
14
Steelers
0
10
0
6
16
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
246
343
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
4.4
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
168
--
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.08
Rushing Yards
78
123
Rush Attempts
23
30
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.38
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-2.89
--
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
35
106
Penalty EPA
-3.07
-10.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.9
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
27
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
32
16
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Steelers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
29
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
21
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
29
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
12
30
Fumbles / Game
28
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U