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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ titans week 4, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
2-1
23
TBD
Nissan Stadium
80°F
4 mph
26
TENTitans
2-1
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
80°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Eagles
0
10
7
3
3
23
Titans
3
0
7
10
6
26

Spread

TEN logo
+3

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
432
397
Total Plays
76
68
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.13
Passing Yards
315
327
Comp/Att
33/50(66%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.24
Rushing Yards
117
70
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
25
22
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.76
-3.90
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-33
-17
Sack EPA
-7.82
-3.58
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
77
30
Penalty EPA
-5.97
-4.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+47.1
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-43.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+45.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+45.7
Value
Ptile
10/08
6.6
89
10/12
1.2
61
10/23
7.0
90
10/29
-3.8
26
11/05
4.7
83
11/19
-0.0
52
11/26
5.9
87
12/03
2.8
73
12/10
5.6
86
09/23
-3.5
25
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
11/16
-5.3
18
11/26
-3.0
31
12/03
0.8
58
12/10
-9.5
4
12/17
3.6
78
12/24
-0.1
51
12/31
0.5
56
01/06
1.2
61
01/13
-2.1
38
09/09
-7.1
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Titans Defense
Eagles logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19

EPA

EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
22
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
17
2
Titans Offense vs Eagles Defense
Titans logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
25
23
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6

EPA

EPA / Play
20
22
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
16
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
23
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
8
W
W
O
12/17
5
W
L
O
12/25
9
W
L
U
12/31
-6
L
L
U
01/13
5
W
W
U
01/21
31
W
W
O
02/04
8
W
W
O
09/06
6
W
W
U
09/16
-6
L
L
O
09/23
4
W
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
11
W
W
U
12/10
-5
L
L
U
12/17
-2
L
W
O
12/24
-4
L
W
O
12/31
5
W
W
U
01/06
1
W
W
U
01/13
-21
L
L
O
09/09
-7
L
L
O
09/16
3
W
W
U
09/23
3
W
W
U