ATLFalcons
3-3
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
035
CINBengals
3-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
17
0
0
17
Bengals
14
14
7
0
35
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
214
537
Total Plays
45
66
Yards / Play
4.8
8.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.30
Passing Yards
107
459
Comp/Att
8/13(62%)
34/42(81%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
10.9
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.64
Rushing Yards
107
78
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
29
Passing 1st downs
5
22
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-17
-22
Sack EPA
-4.97
-3.84
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
22
17
Penalty EPA
-4.75
-3.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+39.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
5
EPA
EPA / Play
14
7
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
8
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
24
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Bengals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
21
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23
EPA
EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
22
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
7
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
1-9
O/U