nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ browns week 10, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ATL logo
ATLFalcons
4-4
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
9 mph
28
CLEBrowns
2-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
0
6
16
Browns
7
7
14
0
28

Spread

CLE logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
382
427
Total Plays
74
50
Yards / Play
5.2
8.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.27
Passing Yards
311
--
Comp/Att
38/53(72%)
17/21(81%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.60
Rushing Yards
71
211
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
3.7
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.02
-6.42
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-2.40
--
Penalties
1
7
Penalty Yards
--
38
Penalty EPA
--
-3.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,388
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+79.0
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.4
Market Regression
-32.4
Final Difference
-124.1
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.4
Value
Ptile
01/06
-0.3
49
01/13
-1.5
42
09/06
-7.6
9
09/16
10.3
96
09/23
10.2
96
09/30
8.6
93
10/07
-1.6
35
10/14
8.6
93
10/22
5.1
80
11/04
6.8
89
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
09/30
-3.5
25
10/07
-0.6
42
10/14
-9.6
4
10/21
-1.0
39
10/28
-1.9
34
11/04
2.4
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Browns Defense
Falcons logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28

EPA

EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
24
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
29
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
11
19
Browns Offense vs Falcons Defense
Browns logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
14
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
5
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/06
13
W
W
U
01/13
-5
L
L
U
09/06
-6
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
W
O
09/23
-6
L
L
O
09/30
-1
L
L
O
10/07
-24
L
L
O
10/14
5
W
W
O
10/22
3
W
L
U
11/04
24
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

2-7-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-4
L
W
O
09/09
0
T
W
O
09/16
-3
L
W
U
09/20
4
W
W
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
3
W
W
U
10/14
-24
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
W
U
10/28
-15
L
L
O
11/04
-16
L
L
O