ATLFalcons
4-4
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
9 mph
28
CLEBrowns
2-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
36°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
0
6
16
Browns
7
7
14
0
28
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
427
Total Plays
74
50
Yards / Play
5.2
8.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.27
Passing Yards
311
--
Comp/Att
38/53(72%)
17/21(81%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.60
Rushing Yards
71
211
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
3.7
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.02
-6.42
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-2.40
--
Penalties
1
7
Penalty Yards
--
38
Penalty EPA
--
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-84
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.4
Market Regression
-32.7
Final Difference
-124.5
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.4
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28
EPA
EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
24
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
29
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
11
19
Browns Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
14
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
2-7-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U