ATLFalcons
2-2
15
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
021
TBBuccaneers
2-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
15
15
Buccaneers
0
13
8
0
21
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
422
Total Plays
62
76
Yards / Play
4.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.09
Passing Yards
112
--
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
35/53(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.27
Rushing Yards
151
69
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-37
--
Sack EPA
-9.03
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
55
45
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-5.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+225
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+34.8
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
-17.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
-13.9
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
15
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
8
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
32
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
22
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
24
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
24
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U