ATLFalcons
3-3
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
3 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
3-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
3
3
3
16
Buccaneers
7
3
0
3
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
329
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
6.3
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.10
Passing Yards
245
256
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.11
Rushing Yards
156
73
Rush Attempts
38
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
20%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-14.45
-9.69
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-19
Sack EPA
-3.12
-4.14
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
60
66
Penalty EPA
-8.00
-6.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.2
Home QB Adjustment
-20.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.6
Market Regression
+43.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-20.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
25
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U