nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ cowboys week 3, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ATL logo
ATLFalcons
2-0
39
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
28
DALCowboys
2-0
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
10
8
14
39
Cowboys
14
14
0
0
28

Spread

ATL logo
+0

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
440
347
Total Plays
70
49
Yards / Play
6.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.12
Passing Yards
282
220
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
22/26(85%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.06
Rushing Yards
158
127
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
64%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
6
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.18
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-12
Sack EPA
-1.79
-3.55
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
70
31
Penalty EPA
-7.66
-4.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-135.8
Home QB Adjustment
-127.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Value
Ptile
11/09
0.1
50
11/16
1.9
64
11/23
0.9
56
11/30
6.8
88
12/08
8.8
94
12/14
6.0
86
12/21
6.8
88
12/28
-8.4
7
09/14
1.0
57
09/20
3.6
76
B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-127.2
Value
Ptile
12/02
1.4
59
12/09
-2.9
30
12/16
-3.6
27
12/23
-3.9
25
09/08
-11.2
2
09/15
-4.5
22
10/13
-0.3
48
10/20
-8.4
6
12/01
1.2
59
11/02
-5.8
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Falcons logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22

EPA

EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
29
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
29
32
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Cowboys Offense vs Falcons Defense
Cowboys logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
31
14
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14

EPA

EPA / Play
25
15
EPA / Pass
31
17
EPA / Rush
5
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
21
23
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
29
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
10
W
W
U
11/16
2
W
L
U
11/23
-2
L
L
O
11/30
11
W
W
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/14
-7
L
L
U
12/21
16
W
W
U
12/28
-31
L
L
U
09/14
2
W
W
U
09/20
4
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/27
-23
L
L
U
12/04
13
W
W
O
12/14
11
W
W
O
12/21
35
W
W
U
12/28
27
W
W
O
01/04
4
W
L
U
01/11
-5
L
W
U
09/13
1
W
L
O
09/20
10
W
W
U