ATLFalcons
2-0
39
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
028
DALCowboys
2-0
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
10
8
14
39
Cowboys
14
14
0
0
28
Spread
+0
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
440
347
Total Plays
70
49
Yards / Play
6.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.12
Passing Yards
282
220
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
22/26(85%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.06
Rushing Yards
158
127
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
64%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
6
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.18
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-12
Sack EPA
-1.79
-3.55
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
70
31
Penalty EPA
-7.66
-4.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-135.8
Home QB Adjustment
-127.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-127.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
16
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22
EPA
EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
29
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
29
32
Turnover EPA / Game
7
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Cowboys Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
14
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14
EPA
EPA / Play
25
15
EPA / Pass
31
17
EPA / Rush
5
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
21
23
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
29
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U