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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ giants week 2, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
1-0
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
73°F
9 mph
20
NYGGiants
0-1
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
73°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
3
0
14
24
Giants
0
13
7
0
20

Spread

ATL logo
+2

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
402
388
Total Plays
70
65
Yards / Play
5.7
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.11
Passing Yards
346
291
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.24
Rushing Yards
56
97
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
19
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
65%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
11
10
3rd Down Attempts
17
17
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.42
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-1
Sack EPA
-3.12
-2.94
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
65
35
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-3.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Value
Ptile
10/26
2.1
66
11/09
0.1
50
11/16
1.9
64
11/23
0.9
56
11/30
6.8
88
12/08
8.8
94
12/14
6.0
86
12/21
6.8
88
12/28
-8.4
7
09/14
1.0
57
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
11/03
2.3
68
11/09
0.6
54
11/16
-10.4
2
11/23
5.4
84
11/30
-0.6
46
12/07
0.7
54
12/14
4.3
79
12/21
10.4
97
12/28
3.1
72
09/13
-2.9
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Falcons logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
21
30
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24

EPA

EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
29
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Giants logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14

EPA

EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
21
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
9
23
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
29
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-1
L
W
U
11/09
10
W
W
U
11/16
2
W
L
U
11/23
-2
L
L
O
11/30
11
W
W
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/14
-7
L
L
U
12/21
16
W
W
U
12/28
-31
L
L
U
09/14
2
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-16
L
L
O
11/09
-21
L
L
O
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
29
W
W
U
12/14
11
W
W
U
12/21
10
W
W
O
12/28
-8
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
W
O