ATLFalcons
1-0
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
73°F
9 mph
20
NYGGiants
0-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
73°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
3
0
14
24
Giants
0
13
7
0
20
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
388
Total Plays
70
65
Yards / Play
5.7
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.11
Passing Yards
346
291
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.24
Rushing Yards
56
97
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
19
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
65%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
11
10
3rd Down Attempts
17
17
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.42
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-1
Sack EPA
-3.12
-2.94
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
65
35
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-3.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
30
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
29
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
29
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
21
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
9
23
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
29
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U