ATLFalcons
5-6
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
8 mph
8
NYJJets
4-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
3
0
13
Jets
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
33
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
194
259
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
3.0
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.34
Passing Yards
104
197
Comp/Att
12/27(44%)
19/38(50%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.32
Rushing Yards
90
62
Rush Attempts
34
25
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
14
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.27
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-17
Sack EPA
-4.58
-8.71
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
55
71
Penalty EPA
-7.06
-5.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+45.1
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-49.6
Home QB Adjustment
-55.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
T. Boyle
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-55.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
30
7
Jets Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
17
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
12
EPA / Pass
32
14
EPA / Rush
32
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
32
21
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U