ATLFalcons
3-9
21
TBD
Lambeau Field
9°F
6 mph
22
GBPackers
5-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
9°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
15
0
0
15
Packers
7
3
6
6
22
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
285
334
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.05
Passing Yards
202
222
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.22
Rushing Yards
83
112
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.95
-15.20
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-4
-36
Sack EPA
-4.77
-11.20
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-2.58
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,569
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-125.4
Home QB Adjustment
-139.4
Away QB Adjustment
-14.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
M. Flynn
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-139.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
25
EPA
EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
8
Interceptions / Game
19
26
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
27
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
8
32
EPA / Pass
10
30
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U