ATLFalcons
4-5
15
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
61°F
12 mph
25
CARPanthers
2-7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
61°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
6
6
15
Panthers
3
10
6
6
25
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
333
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.01
Passing Yards
153
101
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
10/16(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.09
Rushing Yards
138
232
Rush Attempts
25
47
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
13
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.10
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-33
-7
Sack EPA
-11.78
-1.68
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
37
89
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-14.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+35.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-45.7
Home QB Adjustment
-49.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
P. Walker
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-49.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
19
23
EPA / Rush
8
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
5
24
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
18
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23
EPA
EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
9
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
22
Interceptions / Game
15
24
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
12
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U