ATLFalcons
9-5
33
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
5 mph
16
CARPanthers
6-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
13
7
3
10
33
Panthers
0
3
10
3
16
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
408
302
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
6.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.14
Passing Yards
256
183
Comp/Att
27/33(82%)
18/43(42%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.36
Rushing Yards
152
119
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.94
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-15
Sack EPA
-5.94
-3.66
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
45
24
Penalty EPA
-5.67
-2.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
Panthers+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
-9.0
Final Difference
-34.6
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
2
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
4
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
27
RZ Efficiency
9
2
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
27
Yards / Game
19
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17
EPA
EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
11
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
16
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U