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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ panthers week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
9-5
33
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
5 mph
16
CARPanthers
6-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
13
7
3
10
33
Panthers
0
3
10
3
16

Spread

ATL logo
-3

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
408
302
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
6.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.14
Passing Yards
256
183
Comp/Att
27/33(82%)
18/43(42%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.31
-0.36
Rushing Yards
152
119
Rush Attempts
24
23
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.94
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-15
Sack EPA
-5.94
-3.66
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
45
24
Penalty EPA
-5.67
-2.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
-35.2
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
10/09
0.7
55
10/16
3.4
75
10/23
-1.7
35
10/30
8.1
93
11/03
8.0
92
11/13
-2.2
33
11/27
2.7
70
12/04
1.1
57
12/11
2.2
66
12/18
4.1
79
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Value
Ptile
09/25
-9.7
2
10/02
-1.5
37
10/16
1.2
58
10/30
0.4
52
11/06
-4.0
20
11/13
3.3
75
11/17
-5.7
13
11/27
-0.5
44
12/11
-6.4
10
12/19
0.6
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Falcons logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
2
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7

EPA

EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
4
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
27
RZ Efficiency
9
2
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Panthers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
15
27
Yards / Game
19
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17

EPA

EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
14
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
11
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
16
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
11
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
7
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
1
W
L
O
11/03
15
W
W
O
11/13
-9
L
L
U
11/27
19
W
W
O
12/04
-1
L
L
O
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/18
28
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/16
-3
L
L
O
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
12/04
-33
L
L
O
12/11
12
W
W
U
12/19
11
W
W
U