ATLFalcons
6-7
15
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
09
OAKRaiders
2-11
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
0
3
3
13
Raiders
0
3
0
6
9
Spread
6
P
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
249
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
4.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.37
Passing Yards
93
184
Comp/Att
11/17(65%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.44
-0.23
Rushing Yards
168
65
Rush Attempts
37
22
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.37
-7.48
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-19
-24
Sack EPA
-6.65
-4.80
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-4.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
Raiders+6.0
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+74.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+21.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
-20.9
Final Difference
-68.1
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
7
27
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
11
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
9
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
6
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
31
RZ Efficiency
20
22
Raiders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
27
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15
EPA
EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
24
28
EPA / Rush
32
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
31
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U