ATLFalcons
9-5
13
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
023
NOSaints
10-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
3
10
13
Saints
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
315
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.14
Passing Yards
264
229
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.11
Rushing Yards
67
86
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.77
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
15%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.50
-8.29
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-24
-10
Sack EPA
-5.28
-1.69
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
91
--
Penalty EPA
-10.31
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
Falcons+5.5
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+20.6
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
-25.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-16.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.7
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
10
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
6
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
3
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
26
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
6
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U