ATLFalcons
7-9
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
048
NOSaints
8-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
14
3
0
0
17
Saints
7
10
14
17
48
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
400
Total Plays
60
66
Yards / Play
6.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.21
Passing Yards
311
246
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.51
Rushing Yards
78
154
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.59
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
27
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-20.32
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-1.60
-4.28
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
75
--
Penalty EPA
-9.09
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+17.1
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.7
Away QB Adjustment
-5.0
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
3
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
25
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
30
9
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
17
Yards / Game
13
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
19
12
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
10
21
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
18
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U