ATLFalcons
1-3
32
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
053
HOUTexans
2-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
10
0
15
32
Texans
7
9
17
14
47
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
592
Total Plays
69
67
Yards / Play
5.4
8.8
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.48
Passing Yards
318
--
Comp/Att
32/47(68%)
28/33(85%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.98
Rushing Yards
57
166
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
31
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
56%
77%
3rd Down Conversions
9
10
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.18
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-3.88
--
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
63
89
Penalty EPA
-5.98
-12.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+64.3
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.2
Time Adj
-9.8
Net QB Adjustment
-11.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
23
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
2
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
23
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
18
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
9
RZ Efficiency
25
32
Texans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
22
Yards / Game
11
20
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
15
EPA
EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
13
24
EPA / Rush
6
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
26
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U