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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ eagles week 4, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-1
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
63°F
6 mph
19
PHIEagles
2-1
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
63°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
7
7
17
Eagles
0
7
6
6
19

Spread

NYG logo
PHI logo
2
P

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
366
422
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
6.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
231
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.26
Rushing Yards
57
191
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.74
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-3.53
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
55
49
Penalty EPA
-5.48
-6.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
+14.0
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
12/18
-8.0
6
12/24
-4.9
19
01/01
8.3
94
01/08
8.2
94
01/15
5.2
82
01/22
-1.1
44
02/05
3.6
74
09/05
-0.9
43
09/16
6.1
87
09/20
5.1
81
M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
10/30
6.1
87
11/07
-1.8
37
11/13
-4.8
20
12/11
-5.2
18
12/18
7.5
92
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
4.7
80
09/09
-3.8
26
09/16
6.6
89
09/23
-6.3
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
16
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21

EPA

EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
12
31
EPA / Rush
7
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
5
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
13
19
Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24

EPA

EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
27
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
14
3
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
29
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-13
L
L
U
12/24
15
W
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
01/08
22
W
W
U
01/15
17
W
W
O
01/22
3
W
W
U
02/05
4
W
W
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
L
O
09/20
29
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/27
-18
L
L
O
12/01
-17
L
L
O
12/11
16
W
W
U
12/18
26
W
W
O
12/24
13
W
W
U
01/01
24
W
W
P
09/09
1
W
L
U
09/16
1
W
L
O
09/23
-21
L
L
U