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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ eagles week 16, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
5-9
25
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
51°F
5 mph
33
PHIEagles
10-4
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
51°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
0
9
7
19
Eagles
7
13
0
13
33

Spread

NYG logo
+14

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
294
465
Total Plays
60
74
Yards / Play
4.9
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.02
Passing Yards
186
295
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.19
Rushing Yards
108
170
Rush Attempts
27
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
29%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.55
-16.57
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-6
Sack EPA
-1.33
-1.53
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
13
65
Penalty EPA
-1.30
-15.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+63.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-54.2
Market Regression
+69.7
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

T. DeVito headshot

T. DeVito

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-54.2
Value
Ptile
11/12
-6.0
14
11/19
-4.0
24
11/26
-4.7
21
12/11
6.7
89
12/17
-6.3
13
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
10/08
7.7
93
10/15
0.7
54
10/22
3.9
75
10/29
8.6
95
11/05
5.2
83
11/20
-3.3
27
11/26
7.4
92
12/03
4.1
76
12/10
1.4
59
12/18
1.7
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
30
30
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
11

EPA

EPA / Play
30
30
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
29
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
22
Interceptions / Game
15
26
Fumbles / Game
6
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
7
26
Yards / Game
9
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
29

EPA

EPA / Play
7
17
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
6
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
9
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-15
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-3
L
P
U
11/05
-24
L
L
U
11/12
-32
L
L
O
11/19
12
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U
12/11
2
W
W
O
12/17
-18
L
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
9
W
W
U
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
7
W
P
O
11/05
5
W
W
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/26
3
W
W
O
12/03
-23
L
L
O
12/10
-20
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U