NYGGiants
0-3
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
021
NOSaints
2-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Giants
0
7
3
11
6
27
Saints
0
7
7
7
0
21
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
487
405
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
8.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.33
Rushing Yards
85
170
Rush Attempts
21
39
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.60
-2.77
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model76.3%
Spread Pick
Saints-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+233
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+34.9
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
-29.3
Home QB Adjustment
-18.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
-13.2
Final Difference
203.6
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-18.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
4
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
24
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
29
6
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
32
1
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
28
20
EPA / Pass
24
19
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
16
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U