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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ 49ers week 4, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-1
26
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
7 mph
21
SF49ers
3-0
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
17
3
0
20
49ers
3
3
8
7
21

Spread

JAX logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
325
391
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
5.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
308
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.05
Rushing Yards
151
83
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.22
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-4.35
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
90
54
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-6.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model63.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+46.6
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
+10.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.6
Market Regression
+7.6
Final Difference
96.6
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Value
Ptile
09/29
-1.1
40
10/06
7.3
92
10/13
-0.0
49
10/20
3.4
72
10/27
5.4
81
11/03
-5.1
16
12/01
-7.2
8
09/07
-2.2
35
09/14
-0.4
46
09/21
-4.9
18
B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
10/20
-2.8
29
10/27
6.9
89
11/10
3.8
74
11/17
1.7
61
12/01
-4.7
18
12/08
7.0
90
12/12
-10.5
2
12/22
2.7
66
12/30
7.0
90
09/07
2.3
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Jaguars logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
15
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
24
3
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12

EPA

EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
10
24
EPA / Rush
12
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
23
31
Fumbles / Game
5
15
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
8
14
49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
49ers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
11
9
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
1

EPA

EPA / Play
9
6
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
25
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
4
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-46
L
L
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
4
W
W
U
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-5
L
L
U
12/29
7
W
W
U
01/05
-3
L
W
O
09/07
16
W
W
U
09/14
-4
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-28
L
L
O
12/01
-25
L
L
P
12/08
25
W
W
O
12/12
-6
L
L
U
12/22
-12
L
L
O
12/30
-6
L
L
O
01/05
-23
L
L
O
09/07
4
W
W
U
09/14
5
W
W
O
09/21
1
W
L
U