JAXJaguars
2-1
26
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
7 mph
21
SF49ers
3-0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
17
3
0
20
49ers
3
3
8
7
21
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
391
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
5.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
308
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.05
Rushing Yards
151
83
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.22
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-4.35
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
90
54
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model63.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+10.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.6
Market Regression
+7.4
Final Difference
96.8
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
1
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
26
11
49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
5
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
4
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
31
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U