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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ broncos week 4, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-2
26
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
87°F
14 mph
24
DENBroncos
0-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
87°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
3
14
6
26
Broncos
7
10
0
7
24

Spread

JAX logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
455
371
Total Plays
76
54
Yards / Play
6.0
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.07
Passing Yards
186
--
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.12
Rushing Yards
269
68
Rush Attempts
38
16
Yards / Rush
7.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.54
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-7.61
--
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
104
48
Penalty EPA
-10.78
-4.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+76.9
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.3
Net QB Adjustment
+87.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.0
Away QB Adjustment
-90.9
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-90.9
Value
Ptile
09/15
0.8
58
09/19
4.2
80
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Value
Ptile
09/23
0.7
51
09/30
5.0
80
10/07
-3.9
22
10/14
1.0
53
10/21
2.2
64
10/28
-5.7
14
11/04
-2.6
31
09/09
-0.7
48
09/15
2.4
69
09/22
-7.6
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Broncos Defense
Jaguars logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
26
8
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16

EPA

EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
17
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
31
1
Broncos Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Broncos logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28

EPA

EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
18
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
27
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-4
L
P
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
6
W
W
U
12/06
-21
L
L
O
12/16
-3
L
L
U
12/23
10
W
W
U
12/30
-17
L
L
U
09/08
-14
L
L
O
09/15
-1
L
W
U
09/19
13
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-6
L
L
U
12/15
-1
L
L
U
12/24
-13
L
L
U
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
W
U
09/22
-11
L
L
O