JAXJaguars
1-2
26
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
87°F
14 mph
24
DENBroncos
0-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
87°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
3
14
6
26
Broncos
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
455
371
Total Plays
76
54
Yards / Play
6.0
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.07
Passing Yards
186
--
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.12
Rushing Yards
269
68
Rush Attempts
38
16
Yards / Rush
7.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.54
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-7.61
--
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
104
48
Penalty EPA
-10.78
-4.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+76.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.1
Net QB Adjustment
+87.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.0
Away QB Adjustment
-90.9
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-90.9
Value
Ptile
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
8
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
16
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
31
1
Broncos Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
21
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28
EPA
EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
18
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U