JAXJaguars
8-4
27
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
11 mph
31
CLEBrowns
7-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
7
13
27
Browns
7
7
7
10
31
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
389
Total Plays
75
74
Yards / Play
3.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.13
Passing Yards
235
307
Comp/Att
28/51(55%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.16
Rushing Yards
58
82
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
41%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
18
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-11.77
-15.16
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
-4
Sack EPA
-6.86
-5.63
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
40
75
Penalty EPA
-3.36
-9.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+45.4
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.5
Market Regression
+66.2
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
12
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
28
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
11
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
16
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
9
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
23
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U