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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ browns week 14, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
8-4
27
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
11 mph
31
CLEBrowns
7-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
7
13
27
Browns
7
7
7
10
31

Spread

CLE logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
293
389
Total Plays
75
74
Yards / Play
3.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.13
Passing Yards
235
307
Comp/Att
28/51(55%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.16
Rushing Yards
58
82
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
41%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
18
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-11.77
-15.16
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
-4
Sack EPA
-6.86
-5.63
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
40
75
Penalty EPA
-3.36
-9.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+45.8
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
+65.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
09/24
3.0
69
10/01
2.3
65
10/08
2.7
68
10/15
-2.6
32
10/19
6.6
89
10/29
1.8
61
11/12
-9.8
3
11/19
9.7
97
11/26
4.6
79
12/04
5.8
85
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
10/11
-4.4
17
10/18
-10.4
3
11/09
4.7
77
11/22
-3.3
23
11/21
1.3
63
09/11
-1.5
43
09/18
6.5
90
09/25
-8.5
5
01/08
-4.1
23
12/03
-2.0
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Jaguars logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
12
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10

EPA

EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
28
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
11
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
1
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Browns logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
12
16
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
9

EPA

EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
23
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
15
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-20
L
L
O
10/01
16
W
W
U
10/08
5
W
W
U
10/15
17
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
O
10/29
10
W
W
U
11/12
-31
L
L
U
11/19
20
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
24
W
W
U
10/01
-25
L
L
U
10/15
2
W
W
P
10/22
1
W
L
O
10/29
-4
L
P
O
11/05
27
W
W
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/26
-17
L
L
O
12/03
-17
L
L
O