JAXJaguars
1-14
14
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
028
INDColts
10-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
7
0
14
Colts
10
10
0
8
28
Spread
+15.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
439
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
4.4
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.02
Passing Yards
230
--
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.03
Rushing Yards
53
273
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
3.1
7.4
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.17
-3.37
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-13.46
--
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
54
--
Penalty EPA
-5.55
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-15.5
Model
-15.5
Win Probability
Market89.1%
Model88.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+307
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,312
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.1
Market Regression
+27.1
Final Difference
362.0
Model Spread
-15.5
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
26
9
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
6
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
30
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
15
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U