JAXJaguars
4-3
30
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
029
OAKRaiders
2-5
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
0
3
3
17
7
30
Raiders
0
6
3
14
6
29
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
331
Total Plays
77
61
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.21
Passing Yards
216
274
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
29/40(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.28
Rushing Yards
151
57
Rush Attempts
42
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
15
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
56%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.33
-5.76
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-10
Sack EPA
-1.19
-0.95
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
80
55
Penalty EPA
-9.34
-6.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+28.8
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.0
Away Bye Adj
-32.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-10.1
Home QB Adjustment
-19.2
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
+43.2
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
19
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
4
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
12
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
28
11
EPA / Rush
32
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
32
2
Fumbles / Game
5
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U