nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ raiders week 15, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

JAX logo
JAXJaguars
4-9
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
7 mph
16
OAKRaiders
6-7
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
3
14
20
Raiders
10
6
0
0
16

Spread

JAX logo
+7

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
262
364
Total Plays
53
72
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.03
Passing Yards
185
236
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.13
Rushing Yards
77
128
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
17
27
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-31
Sack EPA
-3.04
-5.70
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
87
51
Penalty EPA
-7.59
-6.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+56.0
Base HFA
+47.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.5
Net QB Adjustment
+49.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.6
Away QB Adjustment
-41.8
Market Regression
+30.4
Final Difference
161.3
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-41.8
Value
Ptile
09/15
0.8
58
09/19
4.2
80
09/29
-3.5
28
10/06
6.8
89
10/13
-9.0
6
10/20
-1.9
39
10/27
3.9
78
11/03
-5.2
18
12/08
-0.3
51
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Value
Ptile
09/29
0.5
55
10/06
3.8
77
10/20
4.9
83
10/27
4.1
79
11/03
2.6
69
11/07
-0.9
47
11/17
0.3
54
11/24
-6.0
15
12/01
-3.7
26
12/08
4.6
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
26
24
Yards / Game
19
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6

EPA

EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
17
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
27
Interceptions / Game
7
29
Fumbles / Game
30
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
12
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28

EPA

EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
6
23
EPA / Rush
21
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
15
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
22
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
2
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
L
U
10/20
10
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/03
-23
L
L
U
11/17
-20
L
L
O
11/24
-22
L
L
O
12/01
-17
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/20
-18
L
L
O
10/27
-3
L
W
U
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/07
2
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
L
U
11/24
-31
L
L
U
12/01
-31
L
L
U
12/08
-21
L
L
O