JAXJaguars
4-9
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
7 mph
16
OAKRaiders
6-7
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
3
14
20
Raiders
10
6
0
0
16
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
364
Total Plays
53
72
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.03
Passing Yards
185
236
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.13
Rushing Yards
77
128
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
27
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-31
Sack EPA
-3.04
-5.70
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
87
51
Penalty EPA
-7.59
-6.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,380
Home Field
+55.7
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+49.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.6
Away QB Adjustment
-41.8
Market Regression
+40.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-41.8
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
24
Yards / Game
20
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
6
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
27
Interceptions / Game
7
29
Fumbles / Game
30
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
12
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28
EPA
EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
6
23
EPA / Rush
21
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
15
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U