JAXJaguars
3-11
14
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
019
OAKRaiders
2-12
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
0
7
0
14
Raiders
0
13
0
6
19
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
314
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
5.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.18
Passing Yards
236
245
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.01
Rushing Yards
72
69
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-5.82
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-12
Sack EPA
-2.82
-3.14
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
60
62
Penalty EPA
-6.39
-7.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,352
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+53.8
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.2
Net QB Adjustment
+43.5
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-51.2
Market Regression
+11.3
Final Difference
26.6
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-51.2
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
16
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
17
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
31
31
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
32
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
29
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Raiders
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U