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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ raiders week 16, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-11
14
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
19
OAKRaiders
2-12
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
0
7
0
14
Raiders
0
13
0
6
19

Spread

OAK logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
308
314
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
5.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.18
Passing Yards
236
245
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.01
Rushing Yards
72
69
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-5.82
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-12
Sack EPA
-2.82
-3.14
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
60
62
Penalty EPA
-6.39
-7.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,350
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+53.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
+43.2
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-51.2
Market Regression
+12.4
Final Difference
27.7
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-51.2
Value
Ptile
10/15
-5.0
20
10/22
8.7
95
10/29
-3.1
28
11/05
-2.7
31
11/12
-6.2
13
11/26
-9.5
4
11/10
-7.8
6
11/17
-5.8
13
12/08
-4.0
22
12/15
2.7
68
A. O'Connell headshot

A. O'Connell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
11/26
3.2
71
12/10
-7.5
10
12/14
5.0
81
12/25
-8.4
7
12/31
3.3
71
01/07
1.1
56
10/13
0.2
50
10/20
-5.5
14
11/29
3.2
71
12/08
-6.9
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
12

EPA

EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
16
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
17
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
31
31
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
32
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
29
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
26
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
-19
L
L
O
10/20
16
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
W
O
11/03
-5
L
W
O
11/10
-5
L
W
U
11/17
-46
L
L
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
4
W
W
U
12/15
-7
L
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-16
L
L
O
10/13
-19
L
L
O
10/20
-5
L
W
U
10/27
-7
L
W
O
11/03
-17
L
L
O
11/17
-15
L
L
O
11/24
-10
L
L
O
11/29
-2
L
W
U
12/08
-15
L
L
U
12/16
-6
L
W
U