JAXJaguars
4-2
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
024
NOSaints
3-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
10
1
7
25
Saints
3
3
3
15
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
409
Total Plays
56
88
Yards / Play
5.9
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.12
Passing Yards
--
297
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
33/56(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.28
Rushing Yards
113
112
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
18%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.56
-1.04
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-0.67
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
42
34
Penalty EPA
-4.20
-6.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+65.9
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
+38.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
6
Yards / Game
12
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22
EPA
EPA / Play
15
3
EPA / Pass
19
5
EPA / Rush
28
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
24
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
21
9
Saints Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
13
19
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9
EPA
EPA / Play
19
14
EPA / Pass
14
11
EPA / Rush
24
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
10
13
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
17
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
0-10
O/U