JAXJaguars
5-2
20
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
58°F
2 mph
10
PITSteelers
4-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
58°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
6
3
8
3
20
Steelers
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
261
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
5.7
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.25
Passing Yards
271
191
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.33
Rushing Yards
108
70
Rush Attempts
31
18
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
46%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.01
-3.48
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-5.61
-4.85
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
72
52
Penalty EPA
-6.87
-8.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
Steelers+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+43.2
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.1
Home QB Adjustment
-14.9
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
-11.3
Final Difference
-27.3
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
21
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
28
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
24
11
EPA / Rush
20
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U