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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ steelers week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
5-2
20
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
58°F
2 mph
10
PITSteelers
4-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
58°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
6
3
8
3
20
Steelers
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

JAX logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
379
261
Total Plays
66
64
Yards / Play
5.7
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.25
Passing Yards
271
191
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.33
Rushing Yards
108
70
Rush Attempts
31
18
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
46%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.01
-3.48
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-5.61
-4.85
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
72
52
Penalty EPA
-6.87
-8.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+43.2
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.1
Home QB Adjustment
-14.9
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
-11.3
Final Difference
-27.3
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
01/07
-1.8
40
01/14
-0.8
47
01/21
-2.1
36
09/10
1.7
61
09/17
-5.3
17
09/24
3.0
69
10/01
2.3
65
10/08
2.7
68
10/15
-2.6
32
10/19
6.6
89
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
Value
Ptile
12/11
-7.0
9
12/24
-0.2
50
01/01
-3.4
26
01/08
-1.7
40
09/10
-5.4
17
09/18
-4.3
23
09/24
0.7
54
10/01
-7.1
10
10/08
-2.8
30
10/22
0.1
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
21

EPA

EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
28
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9

EPA

EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
24
11
EPA / Rush
20
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
25
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
4
W
L
U
01/14
1
W
W
O
01/21
-7
L
W
U
09/10
10
W
W
O
09/17
-8
L
L
U
09/24
-20
L
L
O
10/01
16
W
W
U
10/08
5
W
W
U
10/15
17
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
8
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
W
U
01/08
14
W
W
O
09/10
-23
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U