JAXJaguars
5-10
3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
10-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
0
0
3
Texans
3
14
0
3
20
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
119
342
Total Plays
47
74
Yards / Play
2.5
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.41
-0.00
Passing Yards
89
208
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-0.07
Rushing Yards
30
134
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
23
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+2.13
+5.22
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-18
-26
Sack EPA
-3.84
-7.17
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
68
--
Penalty EPA
-7.78
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
-23.7
Final Difference
161.6
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
27
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
23
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U