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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 17, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
5-10
3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
20
HOUTexans
10-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
0
0
3
Texans
3
14
0
3
20

Spread

HOU logo
-7

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
119
342
Total Plays
47
74
Yards / Play
2.5
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.41
-0.00
Passing Yards
89
208
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-0.07
Rushing Yards
30
134
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
6
23
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
23%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+2.13
+5.22
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-18
-26
Sack EPA
-3.84
-7.17
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
68
--
Penalty EPA
-7.78
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model71.7%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
-23.6
Final Difference
161.1
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Value
Ptile
09/16
11.0
97
09/23
-3.9
23
09/30
8.3
92
10/07
-4.1
21
10/14
-5.6
15
10/21
-4.2
21
10/28
-0.0
46
11/11
6.6
88
11/18
-9.1
6
11/25
-6.0
12
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Value
Ptile
10/14
-11.1
2
10/21
-2.7
29
10/25
10.0
96
11/04
2.1
63
11/18
-5.5
15
11/26
6.3
86
12/02
-0.6
42
12/09
0.8
52
12/15
1.9
61
12/23
9.9
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
27
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4

EPA

EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
23
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20

EPA

EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
13
7
EPA / Rush
21
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
28
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
2-6-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-33
L
L
O
10/21
-13
L
L
U
10/28
-6
L
L
U
11/11
-3
L
P
O
11/18
-4
L
P
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
6
W
W
U
12/06
-21
L
L
O
12/16
-3
L
L
U
12/23
10
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
7
W
L
U
10/21
13
W
W
U
10/25
19
W
W
O
11/04
2
W
W
U
11/18
2
W
L
O
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/02
16
W
W
U
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/15
7
W
P
O
12/23
-2
L
L
O