JAXJaguars
1-0
30
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
5 mph
33
TENTitans
1-0
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
7
13
30
Titans
14
10
6
3
33
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
480
354
Total Plays
74
59
Yards / Play
6.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.32
Passing Yards
315
231
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
9.6
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.75
Rushing Yards
165
123
Rush Attempts
27
34
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
23
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
71%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
10
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.43
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-3.71
-2.83
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
60
30
Penalty EPA
-5.73
-2.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+2.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
-21.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
27
7
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
2
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U