JAXJaguars
0-5
14
TBD
Nissan Stadium
67°F
7 mph
16
TENTitans
1-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
67°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
0
0
7
14
Titans
3
7
3
3
16
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
290
Total Plays
75
55
Yards / Play
5.1
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.02
Passing Yards
297
220
Comp/Att
32/46(70%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.06
Rushing Yards
82
70
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
14
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.53
--
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-39
-13
Sack EPA
-8.51
-2.74
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
35
48
Penalty EPA
-5.31
-6.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,286
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-87.5
Home QB Adjustment
-47.2
Away QB Adjustment
+40.3
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+40.3
Value
Ptile
C. Whitehurst
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-47.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
29
Yards / Game
31
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31
EPA
EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
32
26
EPA / Rush
16
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
6
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
26
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
30
22
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
26
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
1-6-3
ATS
4-6
O/U