JAXJaguars
1-10
24
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
027
MINVikings
5-6
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
9
0
1
8
0
18
Vikings
0
6
13
3
3
25
Spread
+10
Total
PUSH
51
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
420
Total Plays
70
85
Yards / Play
5.6
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.18
Passing Yards
268
275
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.04
Rushing Yards
124
145
Rush Attempts
25
38
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
30
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
31%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-16.71
-15.62
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-30
Sack EPA
-2.49
-5.89
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
83
41
Penalty EPA
-8.09
-5.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+10.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,393
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+16.0
Home QB Adjustment
+15.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
211.8
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
27
EPA / Pass
26
25
EPA / Rush
17
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
27
9
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
30
RZ Efficiency
14
10
Vikings Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
31
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
23
Rushing Yards / Game
5
30
EPA
EPA / Play
13
30
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
8
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
27
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
17
26
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U