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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ browns week 17, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
6-9
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
47°F
6 mph
37
CLEBrowns
10-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
47°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
4
0
3
14
Browns
14
14
0
3
31

Spread

CLE logo
-7

Total

OVER
33.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
360
428
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.3
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.06
Passing Yards
253
301
Comp/Att
32/45(71%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
10.4
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.06
Rushing Yards
107
127
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-13.53
-18.05
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-1.93
-1.28
Penalties
12
4
Penalty Yards
74
26
Penalty EPA
-8.47
-4.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+61.7
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-23.8
Market Regression
+13.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

T. Siemian headshot

T. Siemian

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-23.8
Value
Ptile
12/03
-12.5
0
12/10
-1.0
45
12/14
-9.0
5
09/16
-8.3
8
11/07
-0.4
50
11/14
-1.8
39
11/21
0.5
57
11/25
-3.3
28
11/27
-4.2
22
12/24
-2.4
33
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Value
Ptile
11/22
-3.3
23
11/21
1.3
63
09/11
-1.5
43
09/18
6.5
90
09/25
-8.5
5
01/08
-4.1
23
12/03
-2.0
35
12/10
1.2
57
12/17
-2.2
34
12/24
4.6
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Jets logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
10

EPA

EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
32
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Browns logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25

EPA

EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
28
3
EPA / Rush
23
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
15
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/29
3
W
P
U
11/06
-21
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/19
-26
L
L
U
11/24
-21
L
L
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/10
24
W
W
O
12/17
-30
L
L
U
12/24
2
W
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
1
W
L
O
10/29
-4
L
P
O
11/05
27
W
W
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/26
-17
L
L
O
12/03
-17
L
L
O
12/10
4
W
W
O
12/17
3
W
P
U
12/24
14
W
W
O