NYJJets
6-9
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
47°F
6 mph
37
CLEBrowns
10-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
47°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
4
0
3
14
Browns
14
14
0
3
31
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
33.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
428
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.3
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.06
Passing Yards
253
301
Comp/Att
32/45(71%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
10.4
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.06
Rushing Yards
107
127
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-13.53
-18.05
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-1.93
-1.28
Penalties
12
4
Penalty Yards
74
26
Penalty EPA
-8.47
-4.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+45.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-24.3
Market Regression
+14.0
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.3
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
10
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
28
3
EPA / Rush
23
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
15
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
7-3
O/U