NYJJets
0-9
28
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
034
LACChargers
2-7
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
0
13
7
26
Chargers
1
17
7
3
28
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
376
Total Plays
55
78
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.05
Passing Yards
196
347
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
37/49(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.23
Rushing Yards
96
29
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
1.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
28
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
5
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.83
-4.74
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-19
Sack EPA
-2.03
-2.57
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
88
78
Penalty EPA
-9.16
-12.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,292
Home Field
+2.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+24.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
221.8
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
23
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
32
19
EPA / Rush
28
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Chargers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
10
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12
EPA
EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
31
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
9
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
30
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U