NYJJets
0-2
7
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
036
INDColts
1-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
0
0
0
7
Colts
1
10
8
3
22
Spread
-11.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
353
Total Plays
60
56
Yards / Play
4.3
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.49
+0.06
Passing Yards
151
--
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.79
+0.38
Rushing Yards
109
119
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-21.10
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-2.70
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
57
40
Penalty EPA
-4.67
-4.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model79.8%
Spread Pick
Jets+11.5
Expected Value
+14.2%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
+16.9
Final Difference
239.2
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
11
Yards / Game
32
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2
EPA
EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
9
EPA / Rush
28
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
31
Interceptions / Game
23
11
Fumbles / Game
5
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
15
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
24
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
15
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U